Category: 2012 Presidential Race

Recruiting Disciples

We got to sit down with GOP contender Ron Paul last Friday for 45 minutes of discussion in the office. I videoed all of it, and now it is on YouTube. And it’s on fire.

The first clip has more than 3,500 views. I posted it three days ago. The other two clips (each one about 15 minutes) have almost 800 and more than 400 views. They both went up yesterday. They are all high definition, so they took around six hours to upload. Combined with the holiday weekend and it didn’t happen in an instant.

But the disciples flocked almost instantly. People love Ron Paul. His message resonates. Newt and Giuliani got around 100 and less than 50 views, respectively. Ron Paul is getting 35 and 70 times as many views.

But you have to wonder whether all that fervor can translate into a candidacy, and whether a Paul 2012 candidacy would be electable come next November.

You can hear me ask RP that in one of the segments. He says he is electable because his time has come, and the issues he’s championed for 30 years are now in vogue. He also said he is willing to be bipartisan, reaching across the aisle to work with Democrats on certain legislation.

But Paul’s steadfast adherence to his values is both a good thing and a problem. While it is refreshing to talk to a politician who doesn’t seem like he’s shifting with public opinion, the only time Ron Paul works with the opposition is when they see eye to eye with him. He is uncompromising in the most literal meaning of the word. That unwillingness to compromise means he often doesn’t, even if at times that makes him ineffectual.

But his honesty and integrity draw supporters. It’s probably much easier to get behind a candidate like Paul than one like Romney, who changes his positions repeatedly on important issues, but it isn’t as easy to get a guy like Paul into office. Despite three decades in Washington, Paul is still an outsider. Romney would work within Washington’s power structure. Paul is looking to tear that structure down. It would be pretty easy to see how easily a bipartisan effort to stop Ron Paul could take shape.

And while that may seem all the more reason to support Paul (everyone says they hate D.C. politics, even if they only ever see it from afar), the fact is his libertarian ideology isn’t the system that led to America’s past successes, and like any other -ism it might just fail. It would be scary to scrap the model of government that has held true for the last 100 years on the promise of a Texas doctor. No one really knows what effectively denuding the federal government would do, but suffice to say that would be real change.

But even if he was elected, even with the recent flare-up of the Tea Party and other limited government factions, the president doesn’t have that power. He would make some changes, and they would galvanize the opposition, and four or eight or twelve years later the pro-federal government forces would retake the White House. The U.S. government was built to lumber along, not to make leaps. The ideology of an -ism would break across it’s bow, and the disciples would lose their shepherd.

Just look at the disciples who elected Barack Obama. They had faith. They believed. Yes we can? Not in Washington, no you can’t.

The First Debate

I’m heading down to Manchester next week to cover the first New Hampshire GOP presidential-hopeful debate. To be fair there was an earlier debate between GOP hopefuls, but most of the big names were missing. They all won’t be at this one (Palin and Giuliani come to mind) but Gingrich, Bachmann and Romney will all be there, among others. I’m working out a plan to live-blog it, although I’m not sure just exactly how or for whom yet. It’s a work in progress. But I will definitely be writing something up for the Conway Daily Sun. I figured as long as I’m on the presidential theme I might as well keep rolling.

Plastic, or Half a Term Short

Mitt Romney called me at work today to talk about his announcement that he is running for president in 2011. I was mentioning the call to someone this afternoon, and the word that came up was “plastic.”

Other’s have put it more gently: Mitt Romney looks every bit the presidential candidate. But what that means is his hair is always perfect, he’s always smiling, he’s tall, dark and handsome.

In other words, he’s a slightly graying Ken doll, with a conservative slant.

When Giuliani stopped by two of the people in the office noticed he didn’t look anyone in the eye when he shook our hands. I was too busy futzing with my video camera, so I can’t say I noticed, but they were sure. It’s interesting to get to meet these people one-on-one, and to interact with them. It’s the beauty of being in New Hampshire.

Several of the people who have been there through several of these cycles talk about how the most successful candidates have charisma, star power. Jon Stewart was talking about it recently when he was on Bill O’Reilly’s program. Bill Clinton, he said, lit up the room. Sarah Palin does the same thing.

Thus far I’ve met Newt, Rudy and Gary Johnson (you don’t know him) and talked with Mitt. If I had to choose based on charisma, I’d go with Mitt.

But he doesn’t have it all. It comes back to being plastic. Mitt has earned a reputation similar to John Kerry, that of a flip-flopper. He laid out excellent rational about why supporting state health care reform similar to Obama’s national health care reform was acceptable today, and he made it clear he would scrap the national plan as soon as he makes it to the White House, but in many conservatives’ eyes he’s too late. He’s switched positions enough to have lost their confidence.

I don’t have a Republican candidate who seems genuine. Mike Huckabee would have been a good example, but he’s opted not to run. Gary Johnson was very genuine, but I don’t see him getting very far. John Huntsman the same thing.

Honestly, I think Palin is the best combination of charisma and authenticity the GOP can offer this year, but I can’t see her winning the general election. Between not knowing her magazine titles and not finishing her gubernatorial term, she just doesn’t seem to have what it takes to lead the country. Besides, she is a Tea Party favorite, but many moderate voters are scared of her. Had she finished out her term in Alaska she would have had a much better shot at 2012, but people need some time to forget that history for her to succeed.

So who’s left? I’m not really sure. No one promising yet, but it’s a long way from November. We’ll see where we end up in 2012.

Republican Candidates, the GOP and Ray

So obviously I caught up with Newt the other day. Next week Rudy Giuliani is scheduled to stop by. The campaign is warming up, and already people are looking to 2012 (including me).

I’m not originally from New Hampshire, and I didn’t go to college here. I only began studying the political landscape here in the last few years, when I started covering it. It’s still funny to me that the governor of this state only serves two year terms — I’m used to four. And then there is this thing called the executive council that oversees everything he does — I’ve never seen one of those before. And I haven’t been around during primary season before. I’m already looking forward to the next visit.

When I spent the day with Ray Burton, the executive councilor from the first district, he called himself a Rockefeller Republican, meaning someone who comes from the center-right, not the right-wing of the party. They are not the branch of the party currently in charge.

But that is a branch that typically does well in New Hampshire. Social conservativism doesn’t fit with the state’s libertarian streak. I’m interested to see in this Tea Party-powered election cycle how that plays out in this state. How will it play out for moderate Republicans like Jon Huntsman? What will a good finish in New Hampshire mean as its overly white, traditionally moderate electorate becomes more and more distant from national voters?

And what does that rightward influence mean for candidates like Burton? New Hampshire has seen a rise of fierce conservatives, as the House numbers prove. It will be interesting to see where it all ends up.

Newt!

We got 10 minutes with former U.S. House speaker Newt Gingrich at the office today. He was swinging through town on his first visit to New Hampshire as a candidate. I was able to shoot video of the entire conversation, which I will post as soon as it finishes uploading. Here’s to the start of the 2012 GOP primary in Conway!